Focus on the now

In any other year, admonishing a Krzyzewski-coached team to stay focused on the game at hand would most likely be unnecessary.  However, the 2011-2012 season has proved to be rather unique for the Duke men.

Routinely frittering away large leads, or else beginning games with large deficits has been the M.O. for this team all year.  Which is not to say that they have not been successful - losing only four games so far this year with one of the toughest schedules in the country - but  that they've gone about getting their wins in a rather un-Duke-like manner.  

Personally, I was worried about the year coming in.  Austin Rivers, while confident - and rightly so - had already seemed to develop an NBA-sized ego, running his mouth quite a bit before the season began. Further, and more importantly, it was yet to be seen if anyone would step into the leadership gap that Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith had left.

On the first count, Rivers seems to have responded well to the team-oriented focus of the Blue Devils.  His defense has improved, his encouragement of others has increased, and he makes fewer bad decisions with the ball than he did with his superstar mentality at the beginning of the year.  And of course, he's been the superstar on more than one occasion, not least with his game-winning three-ball to beat the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill.

On the other count, our fears have been confirmed.  The likely candidates for leadership - Seth Curry, Miles Plumlee, and...err....yeah that's it - have not stepped up.  Miles has had a solid last couple of games, but still lacks that killer instinct, confidence, and poise that a team needs to see in its upperclassmen. And Seth Curry, well, just hasn't taken the reigns.

The team is good.  Very good.  But it's de-centralized, not looking to the same people to come through each night, though Austin Rivers has flirted with becoming the guaranteed playmaker.  As such, and as a team that still cannot pound the ball inside and get points when they have to, they're at the mercy of the hot hand.  Fortunately, they have a lot of potential hot hands - be they Rivers, Dawkins, Curry or Kelly - but come crunch time, teams with an inside offensive presence are the teams that can consistently get the job done.  And as much as the Plumlees are great guys, watching them try to maneuver with the ball in the post can be a pretty uncomfortable experience.

For now, let's not even talk about free throws.  Oy.

All of that, and they're still tied for the ACC title with the Tar Heels, with one more game to go before the likely showdown for the conference championship in Durham.  And that game happens to be against a weak Wake Forest team.  Which is why the game is so dangerous.  Looking past the Demon Deacons in their home finale to a championship bout with UNC could be disastrous.  The Deacons can save a lot of face with a win over the Blue Devils to close up their home season.  They'll be hungry and focused.  After an 18 point win earlier this year over Wake, and with the game of the season coming up next, the Devils might not have their head in the game.  That's a recipe for an upset.

We'll see how prepared and how present Coach K has his Blue Devils tonight at 9 PM Eastern.

Go Duke.

National Champs

To my shame, I have not updated this blog for the entire 2009-2010 season.

And wouldn't you know?

Duke wins the National Title!

It's a little late now for me to say anything of import about the season, but let me say this:

The Big Three were tremendous all year. Duke's defense was stellar all year, allowing them the offense the ubiquitous ten minute scoring drought, and still allowing the team to win. But the key to the title this year was - and I can't believe I'm saying this - Brian Zoubek.

Those of us who remember Brian when he came to the team in 2006 know him as the kid who couldn't even stand still without traveling, requiring Josh McRoberts to play the five - possibly hastening his departure and lowering his draft stock, and as unfortunate in the injury department.

But he didn't complain, and he MUST have been paying attention in practice, because halfway through the season this year, Brian became a man. He learned to use his body to bring down rebounds and challenge shots. He even all but eliminated his traveling violations and worked in a few offensive moves, allowing him to average double-digits in points over a portion of the late season.

Come tournament time, Zoub, Thomas and the Plumlees took care of the glass and made any shot in the paint a less-than-sure bet for opposing teams.

The Big Three took care of the ball, and found a way to score just enough. But without Zoubek's turnaround it would not have been enough.

Congratulations to the Blue Devils.

Go Duke!

2009-2010 Schedule

The ACC has released the men's basketball schedule for each of its teams. Duke's schedule tips off against UNC-Greensboro in Durham on November 13. Duke then hosts the first round of the NIT Season Tip-Off over November 16 and 17, with Coastal Carolina, Elon, and Charlotte also competing in Durham. Duke is the number one seed in the tournament, with UCONN, LSU, and Arizona State rounding out the top four seeds of the 16-team competition.

Other preseason opponents include Radford, St. John's, Gardner-Webb, Long Beach State, and Pennsylvania, all coming to Cameron Indoor Stadium, while Duke will travel to Wisconsin and meet Gonzaga at Madison Square Garden on December 19.

The ACC season begins on January 3 versus Clemson in Durham. Duke's home-and-home matchups include Clemson, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Maryland, and of course, North Carolina. Duke travels to Chapel Hill on February 10, and hosts the Tar Heels at Cameron Indoor on March 6 to close out the regular season.

Interspersed in their conference schedule, Duke will travel to Chicago and Washington, D.C. to face Iowa State and Georgetown respectively, and will host Tulsa as their last non-conference opponent of the season.

The Mile

The boys had their annual mile run today. Chris Collins tweeted that everyone came back in under six minutes, and Kyle Singler won the race at 5:02.

Summer 2009

Good Lord, but if there ain't a ton to talk about.

First of all, the bad news. Gerald Henderson is officially gone. He has signed with an agent, and that, as they say, is that. Currently, there are a few mock drafts that have Gerald being taken as high as 10th by the Milwaukee Bucks. (On a side note, I was surprised earlier this year to find out that Milwaukee still had an NBA franchise.)

This disturbs me as a fan of Gerald Henderson because he had just come into his own this year, only beginning to realize his potential and to act with confidence and swagger in mid-January. If Gerald went another year under the Duke coaching staff, he could solidify his game and leadership and walk out as a potential top five pick.

But it disturbs me more as a fan of Duke basketball, given that an improved Gerald Henderson and a seasoned supporting cast returning next year, could easily have given Duke another ACC Championsip, and perhaps a trip to the Final Four.

What Duke loses in Gerald Henderson, is someone who can create points. Duke will, it seems, always rely heavily on the long-ball. But stretches of 0-12 behind the arc are more easily weathered when you have a dribble-drive penetrator who can finish. Gerald was that guy. Now, who does Duke turn to? Or do they have an incoming freshman who can do the job?

We'll take a look at the remaining Blue Devils for 2009 in upcoming posts.

Final Week

Earlier in the season, amidst the expected rash of wins, Duke's continued lack of a single go-to athletic scorer bothered me quite a bit. There was much talk among sports analysts that this is a Final Four caliber team.

I begged to differ. I didn't think that being as balanced as they were would allow them to penetrate past the Sweet 16.

There were two conditions that needed to be met as I saw it: Gerald Henderson had to realize and become confident in the superstar that he could be. And Elliot Williams needed to start playing significant minutes.

Well, finally, both have happened. Gerald started turning it on January, and Elliot worked his tail off to get ready for when his chance finally came. And he's been contributing in a serious way ever since he got the starting nod against St. John's.

Not only does Williams have the potential to be an even more explosive athlete than Henderson, he is displaying tenacity on the defensive end that used to be displayed by all Duke players. Duke has been playing smart defense, but not intense defense. And Williams, thankfully, brings that intensity to the floor.

That's not to say that Williams does not have his drawbacks. He makes lots of freshman mistakes, but he is just a tick away from creating his shots at will, like Gerald has finally realized he can do.

So the pieces that were missing are in place, and the wins have been coming. Quality wins against Wake Forest and Maryland have allowed the Duke faithful to breathe a little easier as the end of the season approaches. Of their four straight victories (including at St. John's and tonight's victory at Virginia Tech), the win against Maryland was probably the most encouraging - the entire game (in Maryland) was close, and Duke found a way to win. The Wake Forest game was good in the end, but it, as well as the Virginia Tech game tonight, followed a nauseating pattern that has plagued Duke since their loss at home to North Carolina: get up big on turnovers and shot creation early, then squander that lead as the opposition makes adjustments to the pressure and begins to play smarter defense. In the most recent cases, Duke has held on to victory, but what is disturbing is Duke's reluctance to make adjustments to exploit new weaknesses and maintain their lead. Duke even benefited from a couple of seriously questionable calls in the final minute and and a half of tonight's game - and that's something we really don't want going into the final week of play.

All that being said, the pieces are in place, and Duke has won four in a row and remain a single game behind North Carolina in the ACC standings. Wins against Florida State and UNC in Chapel Hill will be difficult, but Duke has an intensity now that could push them over the top. We just need to see that intensity turn to strategic dissection of their opponents in the latter part of the contests. And, as a believer, I believe that we will.

Go Duke!

Duke is used to 30 point victories in the early part of the season. By the end of their season opener against Presbyterian on Monday, Duke tacked on another, 80-49, but the game was far from a resounding success in the eyes of the Duke coaches, players, and knowledgeable fans.

Duke struggled to open up a big lead in the first half before Greg Paulus came in and provided a spark. After the game, players talked about not being on the same page. Then in the second half, Duke failed to run the plays that Coach K called three out of four trips down the court. This is something that even young Duke teams haven't struggled with significantly in the early going for a long time.

This may come as a mild hit to the psyches of fans who have been getting their hopes up hearing about how Duke now has the experience they've lacked for the past two years, the athleticism to replace and exceed Demarcus Nelson's in Nolan Smith, Elliot Williams, and Gerald Henderson, and a surprisingly effective big man in freshman Miles Plumlee. However, in the opener, while the athleticism was evident in plays like Elliot Williams' 360 degree dunk, Miles Plumlee was largely ineffectual and the experience, while providing spark from time to time, did not supply the leadership needed to give Duke consistency throughout the game.

But it's a mild hit at most. It's very, very early, and the Duke coaching staff has some time to build the hustle and consistency back into the team from top to bottom. If they do, then as we hope, Duke could remain a legitimate top 10 contender all year.

Already in their second game against Georgia-Southern, Duke is playing more cohesively. Czyz and Pocius are both seeing some action, and the usual suspects are in double digit figures.

We'll have an early look on freshman production after the game on Sunday.

Go Duke!

Final Exhibition

Well, the final exhibition game for the Blue Devils ended at 95-42 for Duke. Just a quick post on this, as I just found that Michael Crichton died and am a bit stunned.

Lenoir-Rhyne

Check that. Five minutes later, and with the addition of David McClure, Duke finds themselves up by 20.

Threes aren't falling super-often, reminding us that college basketball has a new 3-pt line distance this year. The long ball is so important for Duke, it will be interesting to see if the new distance affects them at all.

Lenoir-Rhyne

In the early going, Duke is playing poorly against Lenoir-Rhyne. It's tied at 13, and Coach K is pissed, saying that the boys are not ready to play. They're bending at the waist to pick up balls instead of diving on the floor, something Greg Paulus is hopefully going to remedy as he gets brought in.

What I don't need on my birthday, is Duke not playing their hardest.

Go Duke.

No Way to Win

It is ironic that the first post of the 2008-2009 season should largely not be about Duke, but the news of the moment is the first-in-history unanimous selection of the North Carolina Tar Heels as the preseason number one team in the AP, Coaches, and ACC polls.

No doubt, North Carolina is an incredible college basketball team. You have four or five guys who could have gone in the first round of last year's NBA draft, and they're all back for another year, a la the Florida Gators. Err...well...not exactly. See, the Gators WON the title the first time through and returned to win it AGAIN.

The Tar Heels, on the other hand, got embarrassed by Kansas in the semifinals last year, due not to Kansas' overwhelming talent, but to the fact that North Carolina came out flat. They came out flat in one of the most important games in any of their careers. They're so good, they almost made up for it, but it wasn't good enough.

And so, this year is a dream year for a Duke fan. People want to make the argument that North Carolina is not only great but also has new incentive this year since they got their collective ass handed to them last year. You call it incentive. I'll call it crushing pressure. North Carolina's preseason is 33 games long, and the only game of their regular season is the NCAA final, and they're not even guaranteed to get there. Imagine playing 30 plus exhibition games, hoping that you'll be let into the regular season. Granted, they don't have to win each exhibition game, but every one that they do win will be no reason to celebrate. And every loss (and I'm predicting at least one, likely coming in the first three weeks) casts more doubt on their ability to make it to the Final, and win it.

That kind of pressure is going to suck the joy out of their year. Well, it'll suck whatever joy they pretend is still available, anyway. Because even if they meet their goal of a National Championship this year, they miss what their ultimate goal was: to realize their potential. They have ALREADY FAILED to do that, in handing Kansas the title last year, so there is no way for them to ultimately succeed in 2009.

The Tar Heels are already failures. Failures. This year is about staying only Failures and not becoming Absolute Failures. Can even the great Tyler "Beaker" Hansbrough keep his intensity up knowing that he has to generate an undefeated season just to remain a failure? He may. But then, as a Duke fan, so what? Even he does, he's succeeded only in keeping the Tar Heels and Roy Williams from winning the Greatest Choke In Sports History title.

And that's fine.

2 v 3

On February 6th, not only will we see the best rivalry in sports renewed, but it will be a match up of the 2nd and 3rd ranked teams in the country.

Duke and North Carolina hold the two and three spots in both the coaches and AP polls. The only thing that could make this any better is if they were both undefeated and ranked one and two. This game is going to be epic.

Duke has played a somewhat more difficult ACC schedule than UNC so far, and they have come through without a loss, whereas UNC, the pre-season favorite for ACC dominance, has already dropped a game to one of Duke's victims.

This in no way means that Duke is favored going into enemy territory on Wednesday, but they are certainly in better position to compete with a fantastic Tar Heels team than they were last year. Particularly with a defense that actually becomes more suffocating as the game wears on.

UNC will see the best defense they've faced this year, and they will be trying to still an offense that has shown that it can post strong numbers - without a dominant big man.

Duke will see the best defensive big man they've seen this year in Hansbrough, and an offense that can simply light it up.

Prediction: Duke 81 UNC 78

GO DUKE!!!!

Duke v UNC, Round 1

February 6th is fast approaching, the date of Duke's first matchup with the Tar Heels. By the time they meet, they will likely be the number two and three teams in the country, assuming Carolina beats Florida State today.

In any case, they will be one and two in the ACC, Duke with no losses and UNC with probably only one. Fairly equal records, on the surface, but are they really?

Duke's 7-0 includes wins against the 3rd, 4th, and 5th teams in the ACC. Carolina has beaten number four Clemson, but lost to number five Maryland, and the rest of their wins have come against bottom-of-the-barrel ACC teams.

Of course, none of that really matters when these two teams meet. Regardless of the rest of the season, they always seem to make a passionate contest out of their head-to-head matchups.

Go Duke

Duke completed a route of Virginia Tech tonight, and finally proved something to me: Duke can weather a storm.

I should have been convinced of that by now, but Duke had a whole string of poor second halves to begin the season, winning several games, seemingly, only because of fantastic starts.

But over the past few games the boys in blue have figured out how to keep scoring while their defense remains suffocating.

Duke is still without a go-to big man, and will remain so, even after the return of Zoubek. But they have figured out how to mitigate that weakness, at least against teams who themselves do not have a dominant inside presence.

Are they the third best team in the country? That's a tough call, but they have about as much claim to that position as anyone else does right now.

Kansas and Memphis are pretty clearly number 1 and 2. The problem is, Memphis plays such a weak conference schedule, that there's no way for them to lose here on out, all but guaranteeing that the number one slot will be occupied by the Tigers for the rest of the season. Kansas is going to play a lot of great Big 12 teams and almost has to drop one. Will it be Baylor? Texas? K-State? Whose to say?

My question is: does Duke have to lose a game from here on out? The most obvious answer is yes, and to North Carolina. But UNC is playing terrible defense right now, allowing over 80 points to Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC-Ashville, and Clemson. Duke's defense has only gotten better throughout the season. If Duke can score in the high 70's against UNC, we're looking at a potential upset in Chapel Hill.

If that happens, and Duke can handle Maryland, Georgia Tech, and NC State, the they have the chance at a number one ranking by virtue of a strong schedule. We'll see.

Not that it matters. What matters is the tournament, and the way Duke is playing right now, it looks like they can expect at least a 2 or a 3 seed, hopefully giving them the chance to advance deep.

Go Duke

Duke vs Shaw

Some quick notes on the individual performances in Duke's 134-55 trouncing of Shaw:

The two high scorers were Kyle Singler and Demarcus Nelson.
Singler went 10-11 from the field, King 4-11.
The only player not to score double digits was Jordan Davidson, who did knock down two.

Point Guard watch: Greg Paulus played 22 minutes to Nolan Smith's 16. Paulus scored 10 points, going 3-7 from the field and 2-2 from the foul line. All four of his misses were from 3 point territory. Nolan Smith put in 11, but did it going 3-4 from the field, and 5-10 from the line, taking no 3pt shots. Each had a single steal. Similar assist numbers for both. Paulus out-rebounded Smith 5 to 2. And last, but certainly not least, Paulus turned the ball over three times, while Smith had no turnovers at all.

Round one is pretty much a draw, but I'd keep an eye on those turnover numbers. We could see a freshman starting point guard by mid-season.

Zoubek and King both pulled in 9 rebounds. Zoubek managed to go 5-6 from the field but had a team-high 4 turnovers. How many were travels, I do not know, but I would imagine a few of them.

Tonight is Barton College.

Go Duke.

Preseason Rankings

Much was made last year about how Duke's exit from the top 25 poll was the first time in an eon for the Blue Devils. It happened near the end of the season, but Duke still garnered a decent seed in the tournament, only to be ousted in the first round. They return nearly all of their players except Josh McRoberts and brought in a top-10 recruiting class. However, they're still decidedly weak in the low post.

What does this all add up to for the preseason poll? My guess would have been somewhere around 20. I'm no expert, just a fan, but Duke's going to be good this year. The addition of Kyle Singler, Taylor King, and Nolan Smith further strengthen their perennially strong perimeter game as well as adding a much-needed on-ball defender in Smith. But does that make them one of the top teams in the land?

Apparently it does, because they're ranked 11th.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad to see that the program has the respect it deserves, but as a fan, I like to see them underrated at this point in the season. 11 puts them on everyone's radar - as if they weren't all ready - and if there are some struggles early, you can bet we'll hear about how Duke doesn't belong in the top 25 at all.

What I think is fun for Duke fans is that North Carolina is the top team in the country. Well-deserved for certain, but I think being the underdog in their potential three or four matchups during the coming year (granted a Tournament matchup would likely require both teams reaching the Final Four - which is almost too good to hope for) gives the Blue Devils the advantage; nothing to lose and all that jazz.

The ESPN/USA Today Top 25 Poll breaks down like this:

1. North Carolina (10) 0-0 739
2. UCLA (12) 0-0 734
3. Memphis (8) 0-0 731
4. Kansas (1) 0-0 669
5. Georgetown 0-0 625
6. Louisville 0-0 620
7. Tennessee 0-0 598
8. Michigan State 0-0 503
9. Indiana 0-0 479
10. Washington State 0-0 464
11. Duke 0-0 390
12. Marquette 0-0 381
13. Oregon 0-0 360
14. Gonzaga 0-0 252
14. Texas A&M 0-0 252
16. Texas 0-0 216
17. Arizona 0-0 205
18. USC 0-0 189
19. Arkansas 0-0 173
20. Pittsburgh 0-0 160
21. Stanford 0-0 158
22. Kentucky 0-0 155
23. Southern Illinois 0-0 137
24. North Carolina State 0-0 119
25. Villanova 0-0 111

The ACC is decidely short on teams, with only three. But how awesome is it that NC State gets in there? Sydney Lowe has done a great job putting that program back on the map.

Predictions?

Memphis plays just about no one of consequence during their regular season, so they may go nearly undefeated. Starting out third coupled with no losses will keep them in the top five all year, whether they deserve it or not.

UCLA will have a hell of a time with some of the other five teams from the Pac 10 in the top 25. Their strength of schedule puts them in great position to take over the number one slot when UNC drops one or two games during their ACC schedule this year.

Georgetown is scary. I'm saying Final Four for the Hoyas. Possibly a championship.

The ACC will finish with five teams in the top 25.

Duke will get their first major test on November 27th against an Alondo Tucker-less Wisconsin team. Then it's Pitt in New York on December 20th. More on their schedule soon.

Go Duke.

Duke was in the running for Greg Monroe, 2008's top-ranked recruit, and a big-man to boot, but has lost him to Georgtown. This is disconcerting, as Georgtown was already pretty solid down low, and pulled three other decent big men from the class of 2008, so they're pretty much set for the next couple of seasons.

Duke, however, has sophomores Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas as their only two big men. Brian, enormous and white, may not be ready to be the go-to guy down low. Lance Thomas, a banger, is sized more as a 3 or a 4, and won't stand up all season to say nothing of the tournament in that role (or rather, he shouldn't, but the kid's got heart, so who knows).

Of the three recruits for this coming season, none fit the traditional five slot. However, there is some indication that hopes of Kyle Singler potentially spending some time at center might be realized. Lance Thomas himself, perhaps a bit optimistically for his own sake, praised Singler's inside ability.

Also noted in this article is Coach K referring to Nolan Smith as the best on-ball defender on the team; as a freshman. This fact, coupled with his solid passing, and lights-out shooting skills, and we may see Greg Paulus leading in different ways than as a full-time point guard this year; particularly in the late minutes of tight games, when Paulus' suspect defense becomes more of a problem.

All in all, Duke is setting up for yet another very strong perimeter team with an unkown (at best) interior game. Should Zoubek surprise us this year, Duke may have a shot at going deep into the tournament. However, without the strong interior, Duke is going to struggle against any team that plays great man to man, on-ball defense, and contests three-pointers throughout the game.

Come on Brian!

Go Duke.

El Solo Capitan

DeMarcus Nelson has been named Duke's only team captain for the upcoming season. Nelson was one of three captains last year, with Greg Paulus and Josh McRoberts, and Greg Paulus returns for his junior season as Nelson enters his final year as a Blue Devil.

At first, it seemed strange that Paulus would be a captain as a sophomore and lose it for his junior year, but the Blue Devils needed a go-to guy last year, someone they knew they could count on in the clutch, and with three captains, there was no single player they could look to. Perhaps going with only one captain will help DeMarcus assume the role of go-to guy.

Also, practice starts October 12. That's just around the corner!

Go Duke.

The Pain and the Paulus

We all know that Duke struggled last year in the low post, with only Josh McRoberts as their main, go-to guy. This year, assuming Taylor King does not get transformed into more of a physical player over the summer, the Blue Devils are going to be relying on our boy David McClure and Brian "The Walker" Zoubek.

Unfortunately, both of them are experiencing
injury difficulties. While Brian will hopefully be cleared for full-contact drills before practice officially begins, David is a bit further behind in his recovery. I think we'll get an idea of how truly genius the Duke coaching staff is if Brian Zoubek manages to move his feet AND dribble the ball at the same time this year, a task that proved nearly impossible for the Great White Giant last year.

I'm also including a link to a story about Greg Paulus and his brother and his coaches and his roommate, and well, lots and lots and lots of other stuff. This has got to be one of the longest stories I've ever read about a single player, and yet it says virtually nothing after the first three or four paragraphs. Amusing, anyway.

Go Duke.

Duke lands first commitment

Coach K landed his first 08-09 commitment from Reno power forward Olek Czyz. Czyz is a 6'7" power forward with tenacious defensive tendencies and the potential for strong, physical low post offensive play. Duke is still in the running for two top 20 recruits for the 08-09 season, to go with Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, and Taylor King coming in for the upcoming season.