Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Preseason Rankings

Much was made last year about how Duke's exit from the top 25 poll was the first time in an eon for the Blue Devils. It happened near the end of the season, but Duke still garnered a decent seed in the tournament, only to be ousted in the first round. They return nearly all of their players except Josh McRoberts and brought in a top-10 recruiting class. However, they're still decidedly weak in the low post.

What does this all add up to for the preseason poll? My guess would have been somewhere around 20. I'm no expert, just a fan, but Duke's going to be good this year. The addition of Kyle Singler, Taylor King, and Nolan Smith further strengthen their perennially strong perimeter game as well as adding a much-needed on-ball defender in Smith. But does that make them one of the top teams in the land?

Apparently it does, because they're ranked 11th.

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad to see that the program has the respect it deserves, but as a fan, I like to see them underrated at this point in the season. 11 puts them on everyone's radar - as if they weren't all ready - and if there are some struggles early, you can bet we'll hear about how Duke doesn't belong in the top 25 at all.

What I think is fun for Duke fans is that North Carolina is the top team in the country. Well-deserved for certain, but I think being the underdog in their potential three or four matchups during the coming year (granted a Tournament matchup would likely require both teams reaching the Final Four - which is almost too good to hope for) gives the Blue Devils the advantage; nothing to lose and all that jazz.

The ESPN/USA Today Top 25 Poll breaks down like this:

1. North Carolina (10) 0-0 739
2. UCLA (12) 0-0 734
3. Memphis (8) 0-0 731
4. Kansas (1) 0-0 669
5. Georgetown 0-0 625
6. Louisville 0-0 620
7. Tennessee 0-0 598
8. Michigan State 0-0 503
9. Indiana 0-0 479
10. Washington State 0-0 464
11. Duke 0-0 390
12. Marquette 0-0 381
13. Oregon 0-0 360
14. Gonzaga 0-0 252
14. Texas A&M 0-0 252
16. Texas 0-0 216
17. Arizona 0-0 205
18. USC 0-0 189
19. Arkansas 0-0 173
20. Pittsburgh 0-0 160
21. Stanford 0-0 158
22. Kentucky 0-0 155
23. Southern Illinois 0-0 137
24. North Carolina State 0-0 119
25. Villanova 0-0 111

The ACC is decidely short on teams, with only three. But how awesome is it that NC State gets in there? Sydney Lowe has done a great job putting that program back on the map.

Predictions?

Memphis plays just about no one of consequence during their regular season, so they may go nearly undefeated. Starting out third coupled with no losses will keep them in the top five all year, whether they deserve it or not.

UCLA will have a hell of a time with some of the other five teams from the Pac 10 in the top 25. Their strength of schedule puts them in great position to take over the number one slot when UNC drops one or two games during their ACC schedule this year.

Georgetown is scary. I'm saying Final Four for the Hoyas. Possibly a championship.

The ACC will finish with five teams in the top 25.

Duke will get their first major test on November 27th against an Alondo Tucker-less Wisconsin team. Then it's Pitt in New York on December 20th. More on their schedule soon.

Go Duke.