Thursday, January 24, 2008

Duke completed a route of Virginia Tech tonight, and finally proved something to me: Duke can weather a storm.

I should have been convinced of that by now, but Duke had a whole string of poor second halves to begin the season, winning several games, seemingly, only because of fantastic starts.

But over the past few games the boys in blue have figured out how to keep scoring while their defense remains suffocating.

Duke is still without a go-to big man, and will remain so, even after the return of Zoubek. But they have figured out how to mitigate that weakness, at least against teams who themselves do not have a dominant inside presence.

Are they the third best team in the country? That's a tough call, but they have about as much claim to that position as anyone else does right now.

Kansas and Memphis are pretty clearly number 1 and 2. The problem is, Memphis plays such a weak conference schedule, that there's no way for them to lose here on out, all but guaranteeing that the number one slot will be occupied by the Tigers for the rest of the season. Kansas is going to play a lot of great Big 12 teams and almost has to drop one. Will it be Baylor? Texas? K-State? Whose to say?

My question is: does Duke have to lose a game from here on out? The most obvious answer is yes, and to North Carolina. But UNC is playing terrible defense right now, allowing over 80 points to Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC-Ashville, and Clemson. Duke's defense has only gotten better throughout the season. If Duke can score in the high 70's against UNC, we're looking at a potential upset in Chapel Hill.

If that happens, and Duke can handle Maryland, Georgia Tech, and NC State, the they have the chance at a number one ranking by virtue of a strong schedule. We'll see.

Not that it matters. What matters is the tournament, and the way Duke is playing right now, it looks like they can expect at least a 2 or a 3 seed, hopefully giving them the chance to advance deep.

Go Duke

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